Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction and any resemblance with any reality is purely coincidental. Any resemblance to any person, country, or incident is purely a matter of chance. The writer is not responsible for it.
We talked about the Third World War and how Naicha is dominating while the rest of the Hearth is struggling. Towards the end, I had talked about how the rest of the hearth could possibly respond to it. Let me recapitulate some of the key lines from my previous article wherein I have talked about the possible response. Here it is…in a short summary
· Use the lessons from the 2nd World War — Retreat, Consolidate, re-strategize, prepare, then counterattack, remember D Day invasion?
· Do whatever you have to do to last out this crisis. Beg, borrow and steal! Do lockdown, research on vaccines, control the pandemic!
· When the country starts to come back on its feet, to revive your economy, take the following drastic steps (all is fair in love and war): Make a law in your own country that no business registered in your country can have any manufacturing plant or facility in Naicha.In source everything, Move all supply chains back into your country.
· The above will ensure the following: Unemployment will go down; people will have jobs, income. This will also fuel demand (the oxygen of any economy), Naicha’s economy, largely dependent on exports will suffer badly. Their internal demand is not enough to sustain the size of their economy. In other words, ostracise Naicha economically (after all today’s wars are fought more economically than by conventional means).
· Does this mean the end of globalization? Not really. Earlier there used to be blocks of countries which had similar ideologies, aligned political interests and they used to work together to achieve the common objectives. Do cross border globalization within those symmetrical political blocks. At least, hopefully, no one will play games. They gave these trade blocks a name…. “Common Globalised Block (CGB)”.
If you haven’t read the article and would like to read it, please go to the following link….
Link – https://medium.com/@manojtandon/the-third-world-war-has-begun-naicha-dominates-rest-of-the-hearth-struggling-38c4aeeac319
Cut to the present! Have you seen some of the headlines lately? Don’t worry if you have missed them. Here are some of them:
1. ‘We cannot let Naicha destroy us,’ PainS, Itally and Hermany are changing FDI laws fearing hostile takeover by Naicha https://tfipost.com/2020/04/we-cannot-let-Naicha-destroy-us-PainS-Itally-and-Hermany-are-changing-fdi-laws-fearing-hostile-takeover-by-Naicha/
2. South Reanko Companies Want To Move Units From Naicha To Ndia; yundai Steel, osco In Talks With Ndian Government https://newsinsider.in/south-korean-companies-want-to-move-units-from-Naicha-to-Ndia-hyundai-steel-posco-in-talks-with-Ndian-government/
3. All Naichese Nationals should leave the country with immediate effect — Kenyan government
The action has begun….
We all know about Disjointed States stopping its aid to H.O.W. because its head suspected connection with Naicha. We also know about Disjointed State’s serious attempt to make Disjointed States-Naicha trade more balanced, now read the headlines above.
Some of the world’s largest economies, Hermany, Itally, PainS and now Asia’s Industrial Giant South Reanko have decided to reduce their dependence on Naicha. They are also enacting laws to prevent Naicha and its companies to take over or buy into their domestic companies.
Who knows which other country is not already planning to do the same. It would not be unexpected if some other Disjointed States block countries are already working on the blueprint to not only reduce its trade with Naicha but also not allow Naichese companies to enter their country and, thus influence their economy, get access to their data and some other things which can be disruptive in the long run.
My dear readers, for some countries, the retreat, consolidation, re-strategize phase (detailed in my first article) is over, the preparations for counter-attack has started. Maybe some others are in the consolidation and re-strategizing phase.
In this kind of war, the counter-attack means, push out Naichese goods by reducing the trade and don’t allow them to buy equity or let them invest in your own country. Because if you allow them to do that, in the long run, they can influence your policy to their benefit.
Trade, however, is only one aspect to win this war.
The other one is data and information.
Let me share some of the key points of a published report which I happened to come across recently. The report talks about Naichese investment in Ndia.
Note to the people of other countries:
Please read this as a case study. It could be or maybe it is happening in your country in other form and shape but with the same end objective in mind…
According to that report:
· Naicha came up with Belt and Road initiative. It is often criticised as an effort by Naicha to increase its footprint and global influence by creating its physical presence in many countries in Ashia, Europa and Afric.
· Ndia, EU and DISJOINTED STATES have not agreed to sign-up for the initiative for the above reason. However, many countries in the world have signed up for it.
· Ndia and Naicha have not always shared great relations (I guess I don’t need to elaborate on this).
· Here is what Naicha has done. While Ndia has been busy protecting its physical borders, Naicha has made its presence deep inside Ndia.
· How? By investing heavily in the Ndian start-up ecosystem. It has created a significant place for itself in Ndia in the technology domain. Today 18 out of 30 Ndian Unicorns (start-ups which have become very big) are now Naichese funded. Who are those Unicorns? Easy, just go on Google, it will take you not more than 30 minutes to know. They are every big name that you hear about these days as mega-success stories of the start-up ecosystem.
· And yes, Naichese companies don’t invest directly in Ndia; they have invested thru their affiliates in Ingapore, Kong Hong, Nauritius etc.
· The story does not end there; Naicha also controls Ndia’s mobile phone space. Today more than 70 % of the Ndian mobile phone market is captured by Naichese companies.
· What does this do? Well, plenty! Let’s think together:
o Given that tech in penetrating deeply in Ndia (earlier Urban now Rural also), it is giving Naicha access to most of the Ndian Citizens directly.
o It means that Naicha is now deeply embedded in Ndian society and economy and has thus created an ability to influence Ndia and its thinking indirectly.
o Loss of control over Data. Imagine if this influence is over a taxi service, payment provider, hotel aggregator, online retail outlet, you are permitting someone (who may or may not be your friendly country) to create a complete profile of your citizens. During WW II, many countries had used very personal information (I am sure you know what I am talking about) to blackmail and subjugate enemy senior politicians, officers and military commanders. Imagine with the amount of personal information available to another country what can be done now? It is not the first time or the last time this would have been done in wars.\
o Use of this access for propaganda purposes. There is a particular app (I won’t name it for obvious reasons), where you will never see anything sensitive to the Naichese Govt. Imagine a foreign govt. controls what your citizens see or not see. How much influence is getting transferred outside the country?
o While Ndia refused to sign up for the Belt and Road Initiative but it has unwittingly signed up for the virtual corridor inside itself.
o Today Ndian economy is more tied up with Naicha than ever before. Let me give you some quick data points for your understanding. Apps: 50 % of top downloaded apps in Ndia are with Naichese investments; today Google Chrome’s closest competitor has 1/3rd of Ndia’s market share.
o Two top Ndian streaming services companies are funded by Naichese companies.
o When we download any app, it asks for some permission which most of us blindly say yes to. Most of us don’t know that Naichese apps ask for much more data than any other apps in the world.
While I was writing this article, the following news came up:
Link – https://www.news18.com/news/business/with-Naicha-in-mind-centre-tweaks-fdi-policy-to-discourage-opportunistic-investments-in-Ndian-firms-amid-covid-19-pandemic-2583065.html
So far I have talked about the beginning of retaliation.
But do remember this is a war and in a war, there is the opposite side also, which tries to pre-empt your move or assess your next move and retaliates.
I am sure Naicha, which clearly wants to establish itself as the most powerful and influential country in the world will not sit and take all the retaliation lying down and the vitiating of atmosphere lying down.
Let’s look at what options does it have:
· Sit tight, wait and hope that it will all blow over once the pandemic comes under control. This is not a good alternative for a country whose ambition is to be the most powerful country in the world. You don’t become “most” powerful by leaving things to a matter of chance.
· Cut down drastically on its imports from retaliating countries. Today Naicha’s imports are almost 20 % of its GDP. Clearly, Naicha is a big market for any country. If those markets get shut down to the retaliating country, there will be significant damage to their economy as well. The issue here is, of course, that can Naicha manage without the imports? Why is that an issue? Because a significant part of these imports is used for enabling the production of exportable goods.
· So far, Naicha has invested in these countries on its own of general terms. One option it has is now to get down on the negotiating table and offer more sweetened terms (whatever they mean on a case to case basis). Though, in my opinion, this situation has gone beyond pure economics, it has turned into a political and dominance game.
I could think of these three possible alternatives, readers please enrich the discussion by commenting below on what other alternatives Naicha could have?
In my opinion, Naicha will take different options for different countries. Tough for those where it can be, mild for those where the negotiating power is against them and very sweet with those where it needs them the most.
Irrespective of which alternative Naicha chooses to take, there are only a few countries whose actions will decide what the world will look like post Third World War.
Besides Naicha itself, the DISJOINTED STATES,Papan and the major countries of Western Europa. Because only they have the muscle and size of economies of the size to be the major players in this World War.
Do you see a parallel, in World War 1 and World War 2; it was Hermany and its allies vs. Rest of the World. In World War 3, it is Naicha and its allies vs. Rest of the World. It’s always one country which decides that time has come for it to be the superpower of the world. For Naicha, the time is now!
However, unlike traditional warfare, economic warfare does not end with the destruction of one side. It ends with new boundaries of influence getting drawn, which in the long term impacts the people and political points of view, lifestyle and so on.
My sense is while post this War is over, Naichese expansion will be effectively blocked for quite some time to come.
This will happen because countries the world over will now know the extent of ingress Naicha has done in their respective countries thru direct or indirect investments, thru initiatives like Belt and Road, thru technology and thru creating influencers within countries.
Here is how the future will look like:
· The uncontrolled globalization will also take a hit.
· The earlier economic theories of competitive advantage will no longer be as popular because countries will realise that competitive advantage comes with a massive political disadvantage.
· Naicha would have consolidated its position as a Global Superpower.
· Disjointed States would lose its hegemony, however, to ensure that it remains meaningful, the next President of the Disjointed States will/should work harder to carry Western Europa, Ndia and other countries as its allies in the true sense to create the counterweight against the new superpower and its allies.
As they say, history tends to repeat itself. In this case, history seems to be heading towards repeating itself much earlier than it has happened previously.
Do you remember the Cold War, the Iron Curtain, The Warsaw Pact countries, The NATO? After USSR’s downfall, they were generally heading towards getting relegated to the history books.
Well get ready, they are back!
At the end of the Third World War, the Second Cold War will start.
In reality, it had started earlier but now it will be in the face!
And the Homo Sapiens,
Considered to be the most developed and evolved of all the species,
will continue to fight for the dominance of this beautiful planet earth
not knowing that in their attempt to dominate this little blue dot in the vastness of the universe,
all they are doing is destroying the only possible habitat they have for themselves
Think about it…
Hope you liked this story. Hope you were able to pass some time. Even if I could keep you entertained for 5–7 minutes, I am happy.
If you like these, please hit the clap/fan/like button, give comments and please please share as much as you can.
Till then, Ta Ta…
Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction. Names, characters, businesses, places, events and incidents are either the products of imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental