The World would have looked very very different…..you don’t believe me !!….read on..

I am sure most of you have heard the saying; a butterfly fluttering her wings in India can cause a hurricane in Canada….

It may not be literally true but it conveys a very deep meaning ….

Meaning that one small insignificant incidence in one place could cause major things to happen somewhere else…

It coveys that coincidence can sometimes change history…

Is it true….well….let’s check it out…join me in the journey of this discovery of coincidence which changed the world.

It was the summer of 1914. Balance of power in Europe was shaky at its best.

Archduke Ferdinand, crown prince, of Austria, was also the Inspector General of Austrio Hungarian Army. The army had decided to hold its military exercises in Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital. Archduke was invited. Serbian nationalists saw this as an insult to them – they wanted to strike back.

In the morning of June 28th Archduke and his wife travelled in an open car. Their motorcade was to take them thru the Serbian area but few proper safety precautions were taken. The security was so poor that their route was also made public to the people.

This was a great opportunity for the seven Bosnian Serbs with Ultra-nationalist called Black Hand to try and assassinate the Duke….they placed themselves along the way…they had strapped explosives to their bodies, carried loaded revolvers and were all equipped with cyanide so they could commit suicide rather than be caught.

As the motorcade rolled along the Appel Quay, a major street running through the centre of Sarajevo, a Bosnian Serb named Nedeljko Čabrinović threw a bomb toward the archduke’s car. The driver was alert and sharp, he quickly managed to accelerate out of the way, and the bomb hit the vehicle behind, injuring several people.

Instead of cancelling the program, Ferdinand decided to act brave and continued his day schedule. They reached the city hall, met people, Ferdinand gave his speech. After Franz Ferdinand made his speech and tended to some official business, he wanted to visit the injured adjutant in the hospital before leaving town.

For security reasons, it was decided that the motorcade should proceed out of the city via the Appel Quay, rather than take its planned route along Franz Joseph Street and into the narrow streets of Sarajevo’s bazaar district.

As chance could have it, the drivers of the cars were Czech and they were being given direction in German. Neither did they understand the instructions nor did anyone bothered to translate them.

As a result, the first car turned onto Franz Joseph Street, followed by the second car, carrying Franz Ferdinand. Amazingly, this wrong turn took them right to where Gavrilo Princip (another of the original party of seven) had stationed himself along the originally published route for the motorcade.

Ferdinand’s security, realising that the Drivers have taken a wrong turn, yelled at the driver that he had taken a wrong turn. The driver, shocked by the yelling, braked the car to a stop……right in front of Princip.

Princip, also confused and shocked by the ease of the opportunity, recovered quickly and fired…… two shots. The shots were perfect; Ferdinand was hit at a point-blank range above the heart, killing Ferdinand on the spot.

This assassination would provide the necessary spark and a nudge to an already fragile balance of power in Europe.

A month after Ferdinand’s death, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia.

By 1914, the great powers of Europe were divided into two coalitions: the Triple Entente, consisting of FranceRussia, and Britain; and the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy.  Russia felt it necessary to back Serbia and approved partial mobilisation after Austria-Hungary shelled the Serbian capital of Belgrade on 28 July. Full Russian mobilisation was announced on the evening of 30 July; the following day, Austria-Hungary and Germany did the same, while Germany demanded Russia demobilise within twelve hours. When Russia failed to comply, Germany declared war on Russia on 1 August in support of Austria-Hungary, the latter following suit on 6 August; France ordered full mobilisation in support of Russia on 2 August.

And the First World War was on….

It would take only a single crisis—the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, by a young Bosnian Serb nationalist in Sarajevo—to push the continent’s six major powers into World War I, which devastated the continent and killed some 17 million soldiers and civilians.

Read on….the story continues to become even more interesting….

As we all know that Germany lost the war eventually and that lead to the treaty of Versailles.  A treaty in which Germany was humiliated, stripped of its economic abilities, its military was largely disbanded, it was forced to sign the Article 231, later became known as the War Guilt clause. The treaty required Germany to disarm, make ample territorial concessions, and pay reparations to certain countries that had formed the Entente powers. In 1921 the total cost of these reparations was assessed at 132 billion gold marks, roughly equivalent to US$442 billion in 2020).

The German economy went almost bankrupt, the unemployment rate shot thru the roof, German Mark became almost a useless currency. In other words, the life of a German citizen became hell…

Result: Germans became more and more upset due to the series of humiliations being piled on them.

The country was ripe and desperate for a saviour….in walks Hitler….

People loved him; he made all the right promises in the right way….it felt that Germany will once again get what it deserves.

Soon, he was the Dictator of Germany…started what eventually became World War II.

When WW II ended, Europe got divided between Capitalists (led by the US) and Communist (led by USSR).

Cold war happened, leading to ever more dangerous weapons including Nuclear weapons being created,  eventually leading to the collapse of USSR, causing the US to become the only Superpower. This allowed the US to start wars in the Arab region, leading to creating of Terror Organizations (that was the only way radical Islamists could retaliate), World Trade Centre and other acts of terror causing deaths of thousands of innocents all over the world including India.

USSR’s demise led to the rise of China and rest….as we say is history….

Now, let me do what is called a rapid flashback (used in movies quite often)….

If Ferdinand had not travelled in an unsecured car

…and the driver could speak German

…and he had not taken the wrong turn

…and the would-be assassin had not been exactly there at the exact same spot

…and he had missed the aim

…and Ferdinand had not been killed

…and the WW 1 had not started, and Germany was not humiliated thru treaty of Versailles

…and Hitler had not come to power

…and the WW2 had not happened

…and the world had not gotten divided into Capitalists and Communists

…and the cold war and making of dangerous weapons had not happened

…and the US had not become the only global superpower

…and the US had not tried to play dirty in the Arab world

…and Terror groups had not risen

…and terrorism had not engulfed the world

…and China had not become a rival to the US

….and, and and even more and…

WHAT WOULD THE WORLD HAVE LOOKED LIKE TODAY…..

I am sure I can’t give you a good answer to my own question, but I can tell you one thing for sure……

The world would have been very different from what it is now….geopolitical, economical and otherwise….

This is what I meant when I talked about the butterfly effect at the beginning of this article…

As they say, a butterfly fluttering her wings in India can cause a hurricane in Canada….

Meanwhile, please do like, comment, share and subscribe to my blog…

Signing off till next time…..Salute’

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The Third World War has begun — Naicha Dominates! Rest of the Hearth struggling…

Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction and any resemblance with any reality is purely coincidental. Any resemblance to any person, country, or incident is purely a matter of chance. The writer is not responsible for it.

Bored Stiff, you should be, I am for sure. Sitting at home, twiddling our thumbs. After all for how long can we watch TV, work our laptops, sleep, wake up, and eat. Beyond a point, life is beginning to become a blur.

To pass your time, let me tell you a story (as stories go, this is a flight of imagination), it will help you pass your time and also give you some food for thought…..So, wear your wing of imagination….here goes….

· Year: 2518

· Location: A planet located in a galaxy near the Andromeda galaxy.

· Planet Characteristics: Mostly water, rest fertile land, inhabited by millions of species. Dominated by one species called Sapiens. They have an organ called the brain. Brain depending upon how it is used can do a lot of good or come up with most devious of schemes.

Niacha, is looking for any means to dominate the planet. It comes up with an amazing plan and strategy. It starts what can be called the Third World War. Third, because Sapiens have already fought 2 of them earlier.

The Third War, which started around December of 2517, seems to have started the same way the 2nd world war did. Like the country (Hermany) run by the evil dictator in World War 2, Naicha is making tremendous headways in the world. It has brought the entire world to its knees.

It’s recently developed; state of the art weapon called Novid 16 has effectively paralysed the world.

In particular, its arch enemies the allies (Dunite and Western part of Europa) is struggling to keep pace with the fighting. As per the latest information received the numbers of injured (sick) have crossed a million mark and killed in action (dead) more than 100,000.

By any standards of warfare, this is tremendous success within 5 months of the start of a war.

In fact, not even in the 2nd world war (the biggest war Sapines ever fought) these numbers of causalities had not happened in first 5–6 months of the war.

This weapon was first tested by Naicha in its city of Broohan. While most of the weapons of war do not succeed in their initial tests and require lots of improvements before they become battle-worthy, in this case, the weapon showed tremendous results in Broohan.

The test was conducted with such expertise that no other town in Naicha were impacted.

Truly with these tests, Naicheese Department of Warfare has shown that they have arrived.

Once these tests were successful, Naicheese war machine swung into action. Quietly Novid 16 was shipped to countries all over the world, primarily Western Europa and Dunited via people to people contact via tourists (you could call them human carrier pigeons)-brilliant use of a very old method of warfare except pigeon being replaced by Humans.

The beauty or deviousness of this weapon is that it starts very slowly and surreptitiously, makes it base in 1 then 2, 4, 8 and so on till one day the enemy realises that huge part of its population has been impacted.

Naicha, in spreading this weapon globally, also understood the dynamics of politics and politicians in Democratic countries.

They knew that before any drastic action is taken by any country; a lot of time will be wasted in debates, discussion, points, and counterpoints.

Wasted time, the most important parameter, to ensure maximum damage to the opponent.

Wasted that will enable Novid 16 to spread uncontrolled.

And what a brilliant strategy……within 5 months the whole world is reeling under the onslaught of a weapon of mass destruction. No one has any answer except social distancing and lockdown.

Some people still believe that the kill ratio of this virus is not higher than common flu hence why panic, sooner or later it will go away….

How naïve they are….

Finally, when most of the nations of planet Hearth woke up and realised the extent of damage the virus can cause, it was too late to stop its spread naturally. So, they came up with another plan. Plan which they thought is a very smart move but in reality, they were walking into a trap.

This was anticipated by the leaders of Naicha and they wanted it to happen. The people of Hearth were unleashing a weapon upon themselves….

Shutting down of their economy…

How do you ensure social distancing, don’t allow people to come out. And how does one do that? Shut down offices, factories and all other such areas. What do these areas do under normal circumstances, they keep the economy of a country going, they contribute to the GDP, they produce goods, they employ people, they pay salaries, and they make a country grow.

So what happens when you shut them down…….?? !! You are encouraging yourself to commit suicide….

And now, came the third and most hidden weapon of this war…..

Hearth was reeling under the virus and economic shutdown. Sapiens were suffering. They needed the basics for survival. Basics like Food and Medicine.

Naicha’s brain trust had already foreseen this. They were beautifully positioned to provide this to the citizens of Hearth.

In fact, they were one of the largest exporters of bulk drugs and drug intermediaries in the world. Countries above them were too busy fighting with the virus and managing the adversity of the economic impact. In fact, Naicha’s arch natural enemy Ndia imports close to 2/3rd of its drug intermediaries from Naicha, according to some estimates, even the pharma manufacturing units are operating at less than half their capacity due to large scale exodus of their labour.

In case all the above is confusing you a bit, let me summarise it for you:

· Naicha develops a virus which damages but does not kill (because if it kills all the impacted, there will be fear of retaliation from the majorly impacted countries).

· Tests it on its population, find it to meet the objectives

· Releases it on to the world specially countries which are its biggest foes via unsuspecting tourists etc.

· As expected the countries react by shutting down their economic engine to prevent human to human contact

· They now need more product and services to keep things going

· Naicha is the largest producers of medicine intermediaries, masks, food items.

· The same enemy countries come on its door asking for items required for their survival.

· Naicha establishes itself as the Supreme Power of the World.

The third world war is over….done and dusted…in less than a year….the world has changed, the power structures have changed….the leader to the free world has been toppled…..forever…

Some leaders of the Sapiens did not believe in it. They questioned this premise.

A meeting of all-powerful nations of the world is called. The topic being…Are there any options left for the western world? For the Free world? Is there a counter-strategy?

They come up with a counter-strategy….

· Once again, use the lesson from the 2nd World War — Retreat, Consolidate, re-strategize, prepare, then counterattack (remember D Day invasion) and then take the war back into the enemy territory. Let’s translate this to the current situation…

· Do whatever you have to do to last out this crisis. Beg, borrow and steal. Do lockdown, research on vaccines, control the pandemic

· When the country starts to come back on its feet to revive your economy, take the following drastic steps (all is fair in love and war):

o Make a law in your own country that no business registered in your country can have any manufacturing plant or facility in Naicha

o In source everything.

o Move all supply chains back into your own country

o The above will ensure the following:

§ Unemployment will go down; people will have jobs, income. This will also fuel demand (the oxygen of any economy).

§ Naicha’s economy, largely dependent on exports will suffer badly. Their internal demand is not enough to sustain the size of their economy.

§ In other words, ostracise Naicha economically (after all today’s wars are fought more economically than by conventional means).

· Does this mean the end of globalization? Not really.

· Earlier there used to be blocks of countries which had similar ideologies, aligned political interests and they used to work together to achieve the common objectives. Do cross border globalization within those symmetrical political blocks. At least, hopefully, no one will play games. They gave these trade blocks a name…. “Common Globalised Block (CGB)”.

Gradually, Hearth is limping back to normal. The Hearth Order has been restored. Free World has won. Naicha has been left licking their wounds.

Hope you liked this story….hope you were able to pass sometime…..even if I could keep you entertained for 5–7 minutes, I am happy.

If you like this, please hit the fan/like button, give comments and please please share as much as you can….

Till then, Ta Ta….

Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction. Names, characters, businesses, places, events and incidents are either the products of imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental

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