The World would have looked very very different…..you don’t believe me !!….read on..

I am sure most of you have heard the saying; a butterfly fluttering her wings in India can cause a hurricane in Canada….

It may not be literally true but it conveys a very deep meaning ….

Meaning that one small insignificant incidence in one place could cause major things to happen somewhere else…

It coveys that coincidence can sometimes change history…

Is it true….well….let’s check it out…join me in the journey of this discovery of coincidence which changed the world.

It was the summer of 1914. Balance of power in Europe was shaky at its best.

Archduke Ferdinand, crown prince, of Austria, was also the Inspector General of Austrio Hungarian Army. The army had decided to hold its military exercises in Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital. Archduke was invited. Serbian nationalists saw this as an insult to them – they wanted to strike back.

In the morning of June 28th Archduke and his wife travelled in an open car. Their motorcade was to take them thru the Serbian area but few proper safety precautions were taken. The security was so poor that their route was also made public to the people.

This was a great opportunity for the seven Bosnian Serbs with Ultra-nationalist called Black Hand to try and assassinate the Duke….they placed themselves along the way…they had strapped explosives to their bodies, carried loaded revolvers and were all equipped with cyanide so they could commit suicide rather than be caught.

As the motorcade rolled along the Appel Quay, a major street running through the centre of Sarajevo, a Bosnian Serb named Nedeljko Čabrinović threw a bomb toward the archduke’s car. The driver was alert and sharp, he quickly managed to accelerate out of the way, and the bomb hit the vehicle behind, injuring several people.

Instead of cancelling the program, Ferdinand decided to act brave and continued his day schedule. They reached the city hall, met people, Ferdinand gave his speech. After Franz Ferdinand made his speech and tended to some official business, he wanted to visit the injured adjutant in the hospital before leaving town.

For security reasons, it was decided that the motorcade should proceed out of the city via the Appel Quay, rather than take its planned route along Franz Joseph Street and into the narrow streets of Sarajevo’s bazaar district.

As chance could have it, the drivers of the cars were Czech and they were being given direction in German. Neither did they understand the instructions nor did anyone bothered to translate them.

As a result, the first car turned onto Franz Joseph Street, followed by the second car, carrying Franz Ferdinand. Amazingly, this wrong turn took them right to where Gavrilo Princip (another of the original party of seven) had stationed himself along the originally published route for the motorcade.

Ferdinand’s security, realising that the Drivers have taken a wrong turn, yelled at the driver that he had taken a wrong turn. The driver, shocked by the yelling, braked the car to a stop……right in front of Princip.

Princip, also confused and shocked by the ease of the opportunity, recovered quickly and fired…… two shots. The shots were perfect; Ferdinand was hit at a point-blank range above the heart, killing Ferdinand on the spot.

This assassination would provide the necessary spark and a nudge to an already fragile balance of power in Europe.

A month after Ferdinand’s death, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia.

By 1914, the great powers of Europe were divided into two coalitions: the Triple Entente, consisting of FranceRussia, and Britain; and the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy.  Russia felt it necessary to back Serbia and approved partial mobilisation after Austria-Hungary shelled the Serbian capital of Belgrade on 28 July. Full Russian mobilisation was announced on the evening of 30 July; the following day, Austria-Hungary and Germany did the same, while Germany demanded Russia demobilise within twelve hours. When Russia failed to comply, Germany declared war on Russia on 1 August in support of Austria-Hungary, the latter following suit on 6 August; France ordered full mobilisation in support of Russia on 2 August.

And the First World War was on….

It would take only a single crisis—the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, by a young Bosnian Serb nationalist in Sarajevo—to push the continent’s six major powers into World War I, which devastated the continent and killed some 17 million soldiers and civilians.

Read on….the story continues to become even more interesting….

As we all know that Germany lost the war eventually and that lead to the treaty of Versailles.  A treaty in which Germany was humiliated, stripped of its economic abilities, its military was largely disbanded, it was forced to sign the Article 231, later became known as the War Guilt clause. The treaty required Germany to disarm, make ample territorial concessions, and pay reparations to certain countries that had formed the Entente powers. In 1921 the total cost of these reparations was assessed at 132 billion gold marks, roughly equivalent to US$442 billion in 2020).

The German economy went almost bankrupt, the unemployment rate shot thru the roof, German Mark became almost a useless currency. In other words, the life of a German citizen became hell…

Result: Germans became more and more upset due to the series of humiliations being piled on them.

The country was ripe and desperate for a saviour….in walks Hitler….

People loved him; he made all the right promises in the right way….it felt that Germany will once again get what it deserves.

Soon, he was the Dictator of Germany…started what eventually became World War II.

When WW II ended, Europe got divided between Capitalists (led by the US) and Communist (led by USSR).

Cold war happened, leading to ever more dangerous weapons including Nuclear weapons being created,  eventually leading to the collapse of USSR, causing the US to become the only Superpower. This allowed the US to start wars in the Arab region, leading to creating of Terror Organizations (that was the only way radical Islamists could retaliate), World Trade Centre and other acts of terror causing deaths of thousands of innocents all over the world including India.

USSR’s demise led to the rise of China and rest….as we say is history….

Now, let me do what is called a rapid flashback (used in movies quite often)….

If Ferdinand had not travelled in an unsecured car

…and the driver could speak German

…and he had not taken the wrong turn

…and the would-be assassin had not been exactly there at the exact same spot

…and he had missed the aim

…and Ferdinand had not been killed

…and the WW 1 had not started, and Germany was not humiliated thru treaty of Versailles

…and Hitler had not come to power

…and the WW2 had not happened

…and the world had not gotten divided into Capitalists and Communists

…and the cold war and making of dangerous weapons had not happened

…and the US had not become the only global superpower

…and the US had not tried to play dirty in the Arab world

…and Terror groups had not risen

…and terrorism had not engulfed the world

…and China had not become a rival to the US

….and, and and even more and…

WHAT WOULD THE WORLD HAVE LOOKED LIKE TODAY…..

I am sure I can’t give you a good answer to my own question, but I can tell you one thing for sure……

The world would have been very different from what it is now….geopolitical, economical and otherwise….

This is what I meant when I talked about the butterfly effect at the beginning of this article…

As they say, a butterfly fluttering her wings in India can cause a hurricane in Canada….

Meanwhile, please do like, comment, share and subscribe to my blog…

Signing off till next time…..Salute’

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The Third World War has begun — Naicha Dominates! Rest of the Hearth struggling…

Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction and any resemblance with any reality is purely coincidental. Any resemblance to any person, country, or incident is purely a matter of chance. The writer is not responsible for it.

Bored Stiff, you should be, I am for sure. Sitting at home, twiddling our thumbs. After all for how long can we watch TV, work our laptops, sleep, wake up, and eat. Beyond a point, life is beginning to become a blur.

To pass your time, let me tell you a story (as stories go, this is a flight of imagination), it will help you pass your time and also give you some food for thought…..So, wear your wing of imagination….here goes….

· Year: 2518

· Location: A planet located in a galaxy near the Andromeda galaxy.

· Planet Characteristics: Mostly water, rest fertile land, inhabited by millions of species. Dominated by one species called Sapiens. They have an organ called the brain. Brain depending upon how it is used can do a lot of good or come up with most devious of schemes.

Niacha, is looking for any means to dominate the planet. It comes up with an amazing plan and strategy. It starts what can be called the Third World War. Third, because Sapiens have already fought 2 of them earlier.

The Third War, which started around December of 2517, seems to have started the same way the 2nd world war did. Like the country (Hermany) run by the evil dictator in World War 2, Naicha is making tremendous headways in the world. It has brought the entire world to its knees.

It’s recently developed; state of the art weapon called Novid 16 has effectively paralysed the world.

In particular, its arch enemies the allies (Dunite and Western part of Europa) is struggling to keep pace with the fighting. As per the latest information received the numbers of injured (sick) have crossed a million mark and killed in action (dead) more than 100,000.

By any standards of warfare, this is tremendous success within 5 months of the start of a war.

In fact, not even in the 2nd world war (the biggest war Sapines ever fought) these numbers of causalities had not happened in first 5–6 months of the war.

This weapon was first tested by Naicha in its city of Broohan. While most of the weapons of war do not succeed in their initial tests and require lots of improvements before they become battle-worthy, in this case, the weapon showed tremendous results in Broohan.

The test was conducted with such expertise that no other town in Naicha were impacted.

Truly with these tests, Naicheese Department of Warfare has shown that they have arrived.

Once these tests were successful, Naicheese war machine swung into action. Quietly Novid 16 was shipped to countries all over the world, primarily Western Europa and Dunited via people to people contact via tourists (you could call them human carrier pigeons)-brilliant use of a very old method of warfare except pigeon being replaced by Humans.

The beauty or deviousness of this weapon is that it starts very slowly and surreptitiously, makes it base in 1 then 2, 4, 8 and so on till one day the enemy realises that huge part of its population has been impacted.

Naicha, in spreading this weapon globally, also understood the dynamics of politics and politicians in Democratic countries.

They knew that before any drastic action is taken by any country; a lot of time will be wasted in debates, discussion, points, and counterpoints.

Wasted time, the most important parameter, to ensure maximum damage to the opponent.

Wasted that will enable Novid 16 to spread uncontrolled.

And what a brilliant strategy……within 5 months the whole world is reeling under the onslaught of a weapon of mass destruction. No one has any answer except social distancing and lockdown.

Some people still believe that the kill ratio of this virus is not higher than common flu hence why panic, sooner or later it will go away….

How naïve they are….

Finally, when most of the nations of planet Hearth woke up and realised the extent of damage the virus can cause, it was too late to stop its spread naturally. So, they came up with another plan. Plan which they thought is a very smart move but in reality, they were walking into a trap.

This was anticipated by the leaders of Naicha and they wanted it to happen. The people of Hearth were unleashing a weapon upon themselves….

Shutting down of their economy…

How do you ensure social distancing, don’t allow people to come out. And how does one do that? Shut down offices, factories and all other such areas. What do these areas do under normal circumstances, they keep the economy of a country going, they contribute to the GDP, they produce goods, they employ people, they pay salaries, and they make a country grow.

So what happens when you shut them down…….?? !! You are encouraging yourself to commit suicide….

And now, came the third and most hidden weapon of this war…..

Hearth was reeling under the virus and economic shutdown. Sapiens were suffering. They needed the basics for survival. Basics like Food and Medicine.

Naicha’s brain trust had already foreseen this. They were beautifully positioned to provide this to the citizens of Hearth.

In fact, they were one of the largest exporters of bulk drugs and drug intermediaries in the world. Countries above them were too busy fighting with the virus and managing the adversity of the economic impact. In fact, Naicha’s arch natural enemy Ndia imports close to 2/3rd of its drug intermediaries from Naicha, according to some estimates, even the pharma manufacturing units are operating at less than half their capacity due to large scale exodus of their labour.

In case all the above is confusing you a bit, let me summarise it for you:

· Naicha develops a virus which damages but does not kill (because if it kills all the impacted, there will be fear of retaliation from the majorly impacted countries).

· Tests it on its population, find it to meet the objectives

· Releases it on to the world specially countries which are its biggest foes via unsuspecting tourists etc.

· As expected the countries react by shutting down their economic engine to prevent human to human contact

· They now need more product and services to keep things going

· Naicha is the largest producers of medicine intermediaries, masks, food items.

· The same enemy countries come on its door asking for items required for their survival.

· Naicha establishes itself as the Supreme Power of the World.

The third world war is over….done and dusted…in less than a year….the world has changed, the power structures have changed….the leader to the free world has been toppled…..forever…

Some leaders of the Sapiens did not believe in it. They questioned this premise.

A meeting of all-powerful nations of the world is called. The topic being…Are there any options left for the western world? For the Free world? Is there a counter-strategy?

They come up with a counter-strategy….

· Once again, use the lesson from the 2nd World War — Retreat, Consolidate, re-strategize, prepare, then counterattack (remember D Day invasion) and then take the war back into the enemy territory. Let’s translate this to the current situation…

· Do whatever you have to do to last out this crisis. Beg, borrow and steal. Do lockdown, research on vaccines, control the pandemic

· When the country starts to come back on its feet to revive your economy, take the following drastic steps (all is fair in love and war):

o Make a law in your own country that no business registered in your country can have any manufacturing plant or facility in Naicha

o In source everything.

o Move all supply chains back into your own country

o The above will ensure the following:

§ Unemployment will go down; people will have jobs, income. This will also fuel demand (the oxygen of any economy).

§ Naicha’s economy, largely dependent on exports will suffer badly. Their internal demand is not enough to sustain the size of their economy.

§ In other words, ostracise Naicha economically (after all today’s wars are fought more economically than by conventional means).

· Does this mean the end of globalization? Not really.

· Earlier there used to be blocks of countries which had similar ideologies, aligned political interests and they used to work together to achieve the common objectives. Do cross border globalization within those symmetrical political blocks. At least, hopefully, no one will play games. They gave these trade blocks a name…. “Common Globalised Block (CGB)”.

Gradually, Hearth is limping back to normal. The Hearth Order has been restored. Free World has won. Naicha has been left licking their wounds.

Hope you liked this story….hope you were able to pass sometime…..even if I could keep you entertained for 5–7 minutes, I am happy.

If you like this, please hit the fan/like button, give comments and please please share as much as you can….

Till then, Ta Ta….

Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction. Names, characters, businesses, places, events and incidents are either the products of imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental

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Third World War — The Next Phase!

Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction and any resemblance with any reality is purely coincidental. Any resemblance to any person, country, or incident is purely a matter of chance. The writer is not responsible for it.

The PREAMBLE

We talked about the Third World War and how Naicha is dominating while the rest of the Hearth is struggling. Towards the end, I had talked about how the rest of the hearth could possibly respond to it. Let me recapitulate some of the key lines from my previous article wherein I have talked about the possible response. Here it is…in a short summary

· Use the lessons from the 2nd World War — Retreat, Consolidate, re-strategize, prepare, then counterattack, remember D Day invasion?

· Do whatever you have to do to last out this crisis. Beg, borrow and steal! Do lockdown, research on vaccines, control the pandemic!

· When the country starts to come back on its feet, to revive your economy, take the following drastic steps (all is fair in love and war): Make a law in your own country that no business registered in your country can have any manufacturing plant or facility in Naicha.In source everything, Move all supply chains back into your country.

· The above will ensure the following: Unemployment will go down; people will have jobs, income. This will also fuel demand (the oxygen of any economy), Naicha’s economy, largely dependent on exports will suffer badly. Their internal demand is not enough to sustain the size of their economy. In other words, ostracise Naicha economically (after all today’s wars are fought more economically than by conventional means).

· Does this mean the end of globalization? Not really. Earlier there used to be blocks of countries which had similar ideologies, aligned political interests and they used to work together to achieve the common objectives. Do cross border globalization within those symmetrical political blocks. At least, hopefully, no one will play games. They gave these trade blocks a name…. “Common Globalised Block (CGB)”.

If you haven’t read the article and would like to read it, please go to the following link….

Link – https://medium.com/@manojtandon/the-third-world-war-has-begun-naicha-dominates-rest-of-the-hearth-struggling-38c4aeeac319

THE PRESENT

Cut to the present! Have you seen some of the headlines lately? Don’t worry if you have missed them. Here are some of them:

1. ‘We cannot let Naicha destroy us,’ PainS, Itally and Hermany are changing FDI laws fearing hostile takeover by Naicha https://tfipost.com/2020/04/we-cannot-let-Naicha-destroy-us-PainS-Itally-and-Hermany-are-changing-fdi-laws-fearing-hostile-takeover-by-Naicha/

2. South Reanko Companies Want To Move Units From Naicha To Ndia; yundai Steel, osco In Talks With Ndian Government https://newsinsider.in/south-korean-companies-want-to-move-units-from-Naicha-to-Ndia-hyundai-steel-posco-in-talks-with-Ndian-government/

3. All Naichese Nationals should leave the country with immediate effect — Kenyan government
https://naijapledge.com/2020/04/10/all-Naichese-nationals-should-leave-the-country-with-immediate-effect-kenyan-government/

The action has begun….

We all know about Disjointed States stopping its aid to H.O.W. because its head suspected connection with Naicha. We also know about Disjointed State’s serious attempt to make Disjointed States-Naicha trade more balanced, now read the headlines above.

Some of the world’s largest economies, Hermany, Itally, PainS and now Asia’s Industrial Giant South Reanko have decided to reduce their dependence on Naicha. They are also enacting laws to prevent Naicha and its companies to take over or buy into their domestic companies.

Who knows which other country is not already planning to do the same. It would not be unexpected if some other Disjointed States block countries are already working on the blueprint to not only reduce its trade with Naicha but also not allow Naichese companies to enter their country and, thus influence their economy, get access to their data and some other things which can be disruptive in the long run.

My dear readers, for some countries, the retreat, consolidation, re-strategize phase (detailed in my first article) is over, the preparations for counter-attack has started. Maybe some others are in the consolidation and re-strategizing phase.

In this kind of war, the counter-attack means, push out Naichese goods by reducing the trade and don’t allow them to buy equity or let them invest in your own country. Because if you allow them to do that, in the long run, they can influence your policy to their benefit.

Trade, however, is only one aspect to win this war.

The other one is data and information.

Let me share some of the key points of a published report which I happened to come across recently. The report talks about Naichese investment in Ndia.

Note to the people of other countries:

Please read this as a case study. It could be or maybe it is happening in your country in other form and shape but with the same end objective in mind…

According to that report:

· Naicha came up with Belt and Road initiative. It is often criticised as an effort by Naicha to increase its footprint and global influence by creating its physical presence in many countries in Ashia, Europa and Afric.

· Ndia, EU and DISJOINTED STATES have not agreed to sign-up for the initiative for the above reason. However, many countries in the world have signed up for it.

· Ndia and Naicha have not always shared great relations (I guess I don’t need to elaborate on this).

· Here is what Naicha has done. While Ndia has been busy protecting its physical borders, Naicha has made its presence deep inside Ndia.

· How? By investing heavily in the Ndian start-up ecosystem. It has created a significant place for itself in Ndia in the technology domain. Today 18 out of 30 Ndian Unicorns (start-ups which have become very big) are now Naichese funded. Who are those Unicorns? Easy, just go on Google, it will take you not more than 30 minutes to know. They are every big name that you hear about these days as mega-success stories of the start-up ecosystem.

· And yes, Naichese companies don’t invest directly in Ndia; they have invested thru their affiliates in Ingapore, Kong Hong, Nauritius etc.

· The story does not end there; Naicha also controls Ndia’s mobile phone space. Today more than 70 % of the Ndian mobile phone market is captured by Naichese companies.

· What does this do? Well, plenty! Let’s think together:

o Given that tech in penetrating deeply in Ndia (earlier Urban now Rural also), it is giving Naicha access to most of the Ndian Citizens directly.

o It means that Naicha is now deeply embedded in Ndian society and economy and has thus created an ability to influence Ndia and its thinking indirectly.

o Loss of control over Data. Imagine if this influence is over a taxi service, payment provider, hotel aggregator, online retail outlet, you are permitting someone (who may or may not be your friendly country) to create a complete profile of your citizens. During WW II, many countries had used very personal information (I am sure you know what I am talking about) to blackmail and subjugate enemy senior politicians, officers and military commanders. Imagine with the amount of personal information available to another country what can be done now? It is not the first time or the last time this would have been done in wars.\

o Use of this access for propaganda purposes. There is a particular app (I won’t name it for obvious reasons), where you will never see anything sensitive to the Naichese Govt. Imagine a foreign govt. controls what your citizens see or not see. How much influence is getting transferred outside the country?

o While Ndia refused to sign up for the Belt and Road Initiative but it has unwittingly signed up for the virtual corridor inside itself.

o Today Ndian economy is more tied up with Naicha than ever before. Let me give you some quick data points for your understanding. Apps: 50 % of top downloaded apps in Ndia are with Naichese investments; today Google Chrome’s closest competitor has 1/3rd of Ndia’s market share.

o Two top Ndian streaming services companies are funded by Naichese companies.

o When we download any app, it asks for some permission which most of us blindly say yes to. Most of us don’t know that Naichese apps ask for much more data than any other apps in the world.

While I was writing this article, the following news came up:

Link – https://www.news18.com/news/business/with-Naicha-in-mind-centre-tweaks-fdi-policy-to-discourage-opportunistic-investments-in-Ndian-firms-amid-covid-19-pandemic-2583065.html

So far I have talked about the beginning of retaliation.

But do remember this is a war and in a war, there is the opposite side also, which tries to pre-empt your move or assess your next move and retaliates.

I am sure Naicha, which clearly wants to establish itself as the most powerful and influential country in the world will not sit and take all the retaliation lying down and the vitiating of atmosphere lying down.

Let’s look at what options does it have:

· Sit tight, wait and hope that it will all blow over once the pandemic comes under control. This is not a good alternative for a country whose ambition is to be the most powerful country in the world. You don’t become “most” powerful by leaving things to a matter of chance.

· Cut down drastically on its imports from retaliating countries. Today Naicha’s imports are almost 20 % of its GDP. Clearly, Naicha is a big market for any country. If those markets get shut down to the retaliating country, there will be significant damage to their economy as well. The issue here is, of course, that can Naicha manage without the imports? Why is that an issue? Because a significant part of these imports is used for enabling the production of exportable goods.

· So far, Naicha has invested in these countries on its own of general terms. One option it has is now to get down on the negotiating table and offer more sweetened terms (whatever they mean on a case to case basis). Though, in my opinion, this situation has gone beyond pure economics, it has turned into a political and dominance game.

I could think of these three possible alternatives, readers please enrich the discussion by commenting below on what other alternatives Naicha could have?

In my opinion, Naicha will take different options for different countries. Tough for those where it can be, mild for those where the negotiating power is against them and very sweet with those where it needs them the most.

Irrespective of which alternative Naicha chooses to take, there are only a few countries whose actions will decide what the world will look like post Third World War.

Besides Naicha itself, the DISJOINTED STATES,Papan and the major countries of Western Europa. Because only they have the muscle and size of economies of the size to be the major players in this World War.

Do you see a parallel, in World War 1 and World War 2; it was Hermany and its allies vs. Rest of the World. In World War 3, it is Naicha and its allies vs. Rest of the World. It’s always one country which decides that time has come for it to be the superpower of the world. For Naicha, the time is now!

However, unlike traditional warfare, economic warfare does not end with the destruction of one side. It ends with new boundaries of influence getting drawn, which in the long term impacts the people and political points of view, lifestyle and so on.

The Future:

My sense is while post this War is over, Naichese expansion will be effectively blocked for quite some time to come.

This will happen because countries the world over will now know the extent of ingress Naicha has done in their respective countries thru direct or indirect investments, thru initiatives like Belt and Road, thru technology and thru creating influencers within countries.

Here is how the future will look like:

· The uncontrolled globalization will also take a hit.

· The earlier economic theories of competitive advantage will no longer be as popular because countries will realise that competitive advantage comes with a massive political disadvantage.

· Naicha would have consolidated its position as a Global Superpower.

· Disjointed States would lose its hegemony, however, to ensure that it remains meaningful, the next President of the Disjointed States will/should work harder to carry Western Europa, Ndia and other countries as its allies in the true sense to create the counterweight against the new superpower and its allies.

As they say, history tends to repeat itself. In this case, history seems to be heading towards repeating itself much earlier than it has happened previously.

Do you remember the Cold War, the Iron Curtain, The Warsaw Pact countries, The NATO? After USSR’s downfall, they were generally heading towards getting relegated to the history books.

Well get ready, they are back!

At the end of the Third World War, the Second Cold War will start.

In reality, it had started earlier but now it will be in the face!

And the Homo Sapiens,

Considered to be the most developed and evolved of all the species,

will continue to fight for the dominance of this beautiful planet earth

not knowing that in their attempt to dominate this little blue dot in the vastness of the universe,

all they are doing is destroying the only possible habitat they have for themselves

Think about it…

Hope you liked this story. Hope you were able to pass some time. Even if I could keep you entertained for 5–7 minutes, I am happy.

If you like these, please hit the clap/fan/like button, give comments and please please share as much as you can.

Till then, Ta Ta…

Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction. Names, characters, businesses, places, events and incidents are either the products of imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental

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ECONOMIC SPYING — NEED OF THE HOUR

…Is the heading sounding a bit odd to you?

…Are you wondering why suddenly this?

…Are you also a bit confused about what in this God’s earth is “economic” spying? And why is it so important or even relevant?

If the answer to even one of the questions is “Yes”, then you are the right person to read this article.

As always, let’s begin from the beginning…

You all must have been following the news lately, thanks to Covid 19, even the most uninterested people have started following the news.

You must have also noticed a lot of news items on various countries like Germany, Spain, US, India etc. have put various kinds of, for lack of a better word, embargos on allowing Chinese companies to operate / invest in their country “freely” without increasing the “watch” on them.

Countries, like the US, which were traditionally big buyers or who used to source from China have also decided to move their bases away from China to various other countries.

Let’s think, what has prompted them to do that. Here are some reasons:

1. Due to this pandemic, doubt has crept in the mind of Countries that:

a. This virus was lab-created and has been used to bring down the economies of many countries to their knees since that enables China to become the economic superpower that it wants to be.

b. What has angered Governments is that all this has been done at the expense of their countrymen by making them sick, seriously ill and even dead.

c. It has been done by pushing down their industry, making job losses happen and making their people suffer

2. As the leaders of the countries decided to take tough action and to that purpose dug deeper into what is going on in their own country they realised that, where ever possible, China has intruded silently either directly or indirectly in their countries (by investing in their companies, by becoming a part of their supply chains etc.).

3. The most dangerous of these intrusions has been the whole area of Information Technology, Hardware, Software and Mobile Technology.

a. In case of Hardware, Chips, which are at the core of any Hardware, are programmable. One can surreptitiously, put programs in the chip which can steal data from the machine or mobile and then quietly (without the user knowing) can transfer the data/information back to parent companies in China.

b. The other area where a lot of dangerous practices were discovered is this whole are of Apps used in cell phones and laptops etc. They were known to be transferring data back to the huge databases of the companies in China.

c. The third area which has come to the fore is 5 G Technology. While initially, the whole world was excited about this new development but soon people realised that one of the Chinese companies (a leading player) may be using this technology to capture countries complete mobile networks and via that the Financial and Defence Systems also.

d. All the above has set the alarm bells ringing in many countries all over the world.

e. Now, before going forward let me tell why is this capturing of data by a company so dangerous. The reason is that according to the Chinese system, all the data that a company has is accessible to the Chinese Govt. In other words, all of the countries, people data, Govt. data, Financial date and if one is not careful classified defence information is available to the Chinese Govt.

I am sure by now, you would have got the perspective on the topic of my article.

Now, let’s move to the topic…”Economic Spying — Need of the Hour”…

Whenever one thinks of spying (thanks to James Bond movies, Cold War, CIA, Mossad etc.) we think of fast cars, transmitters, bullets, assassinations etc. destroying the enemy resources, installations etc. While the usefulness of that cannot be denied in the low-intensity warfare, however, the time has now come to add one more branch and definition to the business of spying…for simplicities sake, we can call it Economic Spying.

What is Economic Spying?

· Identifying, understanding and destroying the path of Terror Finance. As we all know to carry out a terror attack, one needs Explosives, Men, Equipment etc. what is the common factor to do all the above, Money. Let’s think further, what do you need to run a terror organization like Al Qaida? Again, money. In other words, without money Terror cannot happen. Terror Organizations like any organizations need to raise money, move it to the right place, store it and spend it. They have to do all this without anything coming out in the open. To do all these things they use different methods, sources, tactics etc. It is so complex that it is not easy to make this happen.

· It is said that the third war will not be fought by weapons but by money or in other words, it will be Economic Warfare. What does this mean? Simple, read my preamble again, what China has done is that it has (thru its companies) invested heavily in other countries and thru its technology have dug itself deep inside countries the world over. How does it help China? It has access to data, information, ability to influence Government Policies, and impact the public opinion of the country from INSIDE. When someone attacks a country from OUTSIDE its borders, the whole country rises to the challenge, supports its armed forces, and develops a strong opinion against the aggressor country. But, what happens when a country quietly comes INSIDE the enemy country, starts controlling its resources, starts influencing public opinion using very effective but dumb tools like social media, and impacting its economic assets (if it is still not very clear, think termite, think virus…they eat from inside) then the DANGER is even bigger than straight-on warfare. Using Economic means, one could control the enemy countries economy and then when the right time comes, win the war against the enemy country by pulling the plug on the economy and using the traditional military at the same time. In military language, you could call it, the pincer movement.

While I could go on but, I am sure by now, you would have gotten a sense of what I mean by what I am calling as Economic Spying.

Every country, now, needs to have full-fledged organization (almost as big as CIA, Mossad, RAW etc. of the world) who eat, live Economic Spying.

The job of such organizations should be to chase money, money movement, money utilization, from outside the country, within the country, within organizations and also link them to the actions taken by organizations, directly, indirectly, openly, quietly, decipher patterns and judge the DANGERS and ELIMINATE them as quickly as spying agencies do.

It is now strongly believed that if we really want to end Terrorism, cutting the money source is THE MOST POTENT weapon. Turn the money tap off and the organised terror ends.

Similarly, prevent other countries to get inside your own country via Economic or Technical route for wrong reasons and you have effectively eliminated the risk of losing the third world war…the economic war.

Hence my topic….

Economic Spying — Need of the Hour

As always (and I must thank so many of you who have regularly started supporting my blog), please like, clap, share and comment.

Till next time….stay safe, stay blessed, stay happy and healthy.

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Why is China trying to create disputes all around it? — PART TWO

Why PART TWO and why so fast?

Well, within an hour of my publishing the previous article, I have received lots of questions which can be clubbed under the following two questions:

a. Is there a possibility of India China War?

b. What about the wave of support that has come by nations across the world supporting India?

Since I did not have a simple method to answer these questions, I decided to write a very short article, combining the answers to all the questions that I have received.

So, here goes:

a. Question a: Is there a possibility of India China War?

In my opinion, war will not happen (if only military logic is applied). This is because of the following reasons:

· Wars (for military reasons) are generally started when one side has a clear and reasonable chance of winning. If you read the history of warfare, good commanders try to first create a situation where they have a realistic chance to win.

· In this case, no one nation has a clear chance of winning a short war. Both the armies and air forces (India and China) have moved in its key elements on the border to take on each other. Therefore if war happens, especially given the mountainous terrain, it would be a 1 km this side another km that side kind of war. Both will suffer losses with no one emerging as a clear winner (the reason I said short war is because in a long war the parameters change due to economic, missile and nuclear reasons).

· Also, given the global situation any war between nations as big and as influential as India and China may get escalated to other reasons (in case one side suffers more than the other one).

That brings us back to the question, can war still happen for some other reasons.

Yes, there is a possible reason. Suppose XI Jinping is not able to manage the internal dissent. Feeling that his govt may get toppled, starting a war could be the last resort.

b. What about the wave of support that has come by nations across the world supporting India?

As we all must have been reading that a wave of support for India is coming from US, UK, Russia, Australia, France and some other countries e.g. France is fast-tracking deliveries of Rafale, Russia is giving Mig 29 and Su 30 squadrons in addition to some missile systems. Etc.

Always remember, that in Geo Politics, nothing is done without a reason.

Therefore, the question is why are these countries helping us besides the ideological and economical differences with China and match with India.

Here is my analysis, if war does come about between China and its neighbours (for the reason I mentioned above), India is the only neighbour of China which can and will give China a good fight. Therefore if they strengthen India, they can try and limit the war to the Asian continent only.

One last thought, then why is Russia supporting India by agreeing to give planes and missile systems? One is, of course, economic, second is that if war does come Russia would prefer it to be a two-front war, Russia-China in the north and India-China in the south.

In other words, let India be the first line of defence. Strengthen it to the extent that it can take on China and thus contain the war between India and China leaving other countries unscathed.

Will that approach work?

In my opinion, it won’t…it has been tried before in first and second world wars, it failed every time….and it will fail again.

but then who am I to decide the policy of big nations…

As always, please let me know what do you think?

And Yes, please do clap, like, share and help me in reaching more readers…

Till then, God Bless people of the planet called earth…

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Why is China trying to create disputes all around it?

Have you been following just the headlines (not the emotional rhetoric that is going on in the social and other media)…

Just cold, rational, calculated facts of what is happening in and around China.

Let me summarise them for you:

· China and India are having a massive border stand-off and had a major skirmish at the border resulting in deaths on both Indian and Chinese sides

· China has claimed that part of Bhutan is theirs

· China has claimed that the port city of Vladivostok is theirs. It was only in 1860 that the city was ceded to Russia. For the uninitiated, Vladivostok is the only and most important port city of Russia. Hypothetically, if one blocks Vladivostok, the Russian economy will be in big trouble.

· China’s policy on Hong Kong has taken a sharp turn towards the worst

· China has a dispute with Taiwan and Vietnam which has once again come to the fore.

According to a quick research China has border disputes with Russian, India, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Laos, Philippines, Malaysia Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea etc. Not all of them are “live”.

However, from this big list, a few of them have suddenly become “hot” issues which are grabbing the headlines.

I am sure I may be inaccurate in few of the above items, but, have you wondered why suddenly China has brought these issues to limelight or have given them a fresh lease of life.

Here is why I think, China is deliberately doing this.

1. China is getting cornered the world over due to the unsaid belief that the world is suffering due to China’s role (real or imagined) in creating the Covid 19 pandemic and its associated suffering the world is going thru.

2. What is making it worse is the fact the global economic activity is going into negative led by countries like the US, European Union, India, Russia, Brazil etc.

3. Some of the major powers have joined the US in building walls around themselves to prevent doing business with China or Chinese companies. Major Powers include Germany, the UK, India and so on.

4. All the above has resulted in Chinese economy getting badly impacted and, as a result, causing unemployment to increase to unprecedented levels within mainland China.

The Chinese dream of becoming clear number 1 global superpower by the middle of this century is under serious threat.

Typically when a major tectonic shift of this level starts to happen (of losing the chance to become the world leader) for a country happens, who gets blamed first (internally) within a country?

It’s the Head of the Country. In this case, XI Jinping.

Since the time humans organised themselves into rulers (elected or appointed) and ruled, there has always been multiple aspirants for the position (of course only one gets it) and those who want to be the ruler but lose the internal battle always carry that bitter feeling with them.

That is why one has seen by purges in Russia by Stalin, in Germany by Hitler etc. The idea being to neutralise such people by finishing them off once and for all.

I am sure when XI Jinping came to power there were many aspirants to the job in Communist Party of China. They may not have succeeded then in winning the top post but they must have kept that grudge inside them waiting for the opportunity.

Now, fate or shall we say a virus has given them that opportunity.

China is getting isolated on the world stage both economically and politically. The Chinese dream of becoming the world’s most powerful country is potentially in danger.

What better time to bring out the knives? What better time for XI Jinping’s opponents to take advantage of the current situation to bring down his regime for their benefit…

Let’s switch the perspective 180 degrees for the moment to understand what is happening.

For XI Jinping, life was good. He was lifetime President of China, his country was rapidly advancing economically and well on its way to become the superpower that will control the world…and then suddenly…

Covid 19 happened. It spread globally like wildfire, impacting every country on the way. No medicine worked, the world turned towards the oldest method in the book, social distancing…the economy started suffering, unemployment became rampant,

There was no easy way out, the anger against “Chinese” virus rose, people started blaming everything Chinese, popular opinion turned against China and anything made by China or Chinese companies.

Political leaders quickly understood the public sentiment and decided to react to maintain their standing in public…US, Germany, UK, India etc. are all such examples.

Suddenly, XI Jinping’s dream of becoming the World’s most powerful man (title generally given to the President of the US) was getting shattered in front of his eyes and he was helpless. His opponents within Communist Party had taken the daggers out…

it was the Julius Caesar moment for him…Hope you remember “Et tu Brutus”.

But he is no greenhorn, he knows his game. He knows that one of the best strategies in the world (from time immemorial) in such situations has been to divert people’s attention, to create a national emergency, to give a call for nationalism…

He has done just that…he has successfully created “war like” situation in China, in the minds of the Chinese population and the Chinese Communist Party.

The war cry is loud and clear…

China did not invent the virus (our people are also suffering but the world does not care for us, they just want to blame us), India is enemy no. 1; Hong Kong is trying to get away from China, Russia has annexed our city, Taiwan is a threat to our existence and on and on…..

Expected reaction: People rally around Xi Jinping, Party members seeing the public sentiment fall in line.

Result: His power remains intact…

The way forward:

Here are my thoughts and recommendations for the way forward:

1. When it comes to geopolitics, China is perhaps the shrewdest country in the world. Having China as the lone Superpower could lead to a very dangerous world.

2. We have already seen that using their forces, electronic sleuthing, smart business investments around the globe, using technology to gather people data, spying on them, and influencing their thinking. China’s approach to world dominance is clear. It is not about just dominance, it is about controlling every action. The way it is done within China.

3. If having the US and USSR as two main superpowers was bad for the world, having China as the lone superpower will be worst.

4. Let’s also be clear that the hay days of US are over, while USSR came down like a ton of bricks, the US is, initially slowly but gaining pace rapidly, are slipping down an icy slope. Another few decades and the downfall will become more and more obvious.

Therefore, this is a good time to stop China’s juggernaut also and (hopefully) create a world where there is NO superpower and the benefits are more equitably distributed.

Maybe it is the world order that will be better for all.

How does one do that? By continuing the actions that have been started (preventing Chinese investment, industry from entering our countries), convert them into a world movement till the time the objective is achieved.

As always, please let me know what do you think?

And Yes, please do clap, like, share and help me in reaching more readers…

Till then, God Bless people of this planet called earth…

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