Why is China trying to create disputes all around it? — PART TWO

Why PART TWO and why so fast?

Well, within an hour of my publishing the previous article, I have received lots of questions which can be clubbed under the following two questions:

a. Is there a possibility of India China War?

b. What about the wave of support that has come by nations across the world supporting India?

Since I did not have a simple method to answer these questions, I decided to write a very short article, combining the answers to all the questions that I have received.

So, here goes:

a. Question a: Is there a possibility of India China War?

In my opinion, war will not happen (if only military logic is applied). This is because of the following reasons:

· Wars (for military reasons) are generally started when one side has a clear and reasonable chance of winning. If you read the history of warfare, good commanders try to first create a situation where they have a realistic chance to win.

· In this case, no one nation has a clear chance of winning a short war. Both the armies and air forces (India and China) have moved in its key elements on the border to take on each other. Therefore if war happens, especially given the mountainous terrain, it would be a 1 km this side another km that side kind of war. Both will suffer losses with no one emerging as a clear winner (the reason I said short war is because in a long war the parameters change due to economic, missile and nuclear reasons).

· Also, given the global situation any war between nations as big and as influential as India and China may get escalated to other reasons (in case one side suffers more than the other one).

That brings us back to the question, can war still happen for some other reasons.

Yes, there is a possible reason. Suppose XI Jinping is not able to manage the internal dissent. Feeling that his govt may get toppled, starting a war could be the last resort.

b. What about the wave of support that has come by nations across the world supporting India?

As we all must have been reading that a wave of support for India is coming from US, UK, Russia, Australia, France and some other countries e.g. France is fast-tracking deliveries of Rafale, Russia is giving Mig 29 and Su 30 squadrons in addition to some missile systems. Etc.

Always remember, that in Geo Politics, nothing is done without a reason.

Therefore, the question is why are these countries helping us besides the ideological and economical differences with China and match with India.

Here is my analysis, if war does come about between China and its neighbours (for the reason I mentioned above), India is the only neighbour of China which can and will give China a good fight. Therefore if they strengthen India, they can try and limit the war to the Asian continent only.

One last thought, then why is Russia supporting India by agreeing to give planes and missile systems? One is, of course, economic, second is that if war does come Russia would prefer it to be a two-front war, Russia-China in the north and India-China in the south.

In other words, let India be the first line of defence. Strengthen it to the extent that it can take on China and thus contain the war between India and China leaving other countries unscathed.

Will that approach work?

In my opinion, it won’t…it has been tried before in first and second world wars, it failed every time….and it will fail again.

but then who am I to decide the policy of big nations…

As always, please let me know what do you think?

And Yes, please do clap, like, share and help me in reaching more readers…

Till then, God Bless people of the planet called earth…

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Why is China trying to create disputes all around it?

Have you been following just the headlines (not the emotional rhetoric that is going on in the social and other media)…

Just cold, rational, calculated facts of what is happening in and around China.

Let me summarise them for you:

· China and India are having a massive border stand-off and had a major skirmish at the border resulting in deaths on both Indian and Chinese sides

· China has claimed that part of Bhutan is theirs

· China has claimed that the port city of Vladivostok is theirs. It was only in 1860 that the city was ceded to Russia. For the uninitiated, Vladivostok is the only and most important port city of Russia. Hypothetically, if one blocks Vladivostok, the Russian economy will be in big trouble.

· China’s policy on Hong Kong has taken a sharp turn towards the worst

· China has a dispute with Taiwan and Vietnam which has once again come to the fore.

According to a quick research China has border disputes with Russian, India, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Laos, Philippines, Malaysia Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea etc. Not all of them are “live”.

However, from this big list, a few of them have suddenly become “hot” issues which are grabbing the headlines.

I am sure I may be inaccurate in few of the above items, but, have you wondered why suddenly China has brought these issues to limelight or have given them a fresh lease of life.

Here is why I think, China is deliberately doing this.

1. China is getting cornered the world over due to the unsaid belief that the world is suffering due to China’s role (real or imagined) in creating the Covid 19 pandemic and its associated suffering the world is going thru.

2. What is making it worse is the fact the global economic activity is going into negative led by countries like the US, European Union, India, Russia, Brazil etc.

3. Some of the major powers have joined the US in building walls around themselves to prevent doing business with China or Chinese companies. Major Powers include Germany, the UK, India and so on.

4. All the above has resulted in Chinese economy getting badly impacted and, as a result, causing unemployment to increase to unprecedented levels within mainland China.

The Chinese dream of becoming clear number 1 global superpower by the middle of this century is under serious threat.

Typically when a major tectonic shift of this level starts to happen (of losing the chance to become the world leader) for a country happens, who gets blamed first (internally) within a country?

It’s the Head of the Country. In this case, XI Jinping.

Since the time humans organised themselves into rulers (elected or appointed) and ruled, there has always been multiple aspirants for the position (of course only one gets it) and those who want to be the ruler but lose the internal battle always carry that bitter feeling with them.

That is why one has seen by purges in Russia by Stalin, in Germany by Hitler etc. The idea being to neutralise such people by finishing them off once and for all.

I am sure when XI Jinping came to power there were many aspirants to the job in Communist Party of China. They may not have succeeded then in winning the top post but they must have kept that grudge inside them waiting for the opportunity.

Now, fate or shall we say a virus has given them that opportunity.

China is getting isolated on the world stage both economically and politically. The Chinese dream of becoming the world’s most powerful country is potentially in danger.

What better time to bring out the knives? What better time for XI Jinping’s opponents to take advantage of the current situation to bring down his regime for their benefit…

Let’s switch the perspective 180 degrees for the moment to understand what is happening.

For XI Jinping, life was good. He was lifetime President of China, his country was rapidly advancing economically and well on its way to become the superpower that will control the world…and then suddenly…

Covid 19 happened. It spread globally like wildfire, impacting every country on the way. No medicine worked, the world turned towards the oldest method in the book, social distancing…the economy started suffering, unemployment became rampant,

There was no easy way out, the anger against “Chinese” virus rose, people started blaming everything Chinese, popular opinion turned against China and anything made by China or Chinese companies.

Political leaders quickly understood the public sentiment and decided to react to maintain their standing in public…US, Germany, UK, India etc. are all such examples.

Suddenly, XI Jinping’s dream of becoming the World’s most powerful man (title generally given to the President of the US) was getting shattered in front of his eyes and he was helpless. His opponents within Communist Party had taken the daggers out…

it was the Julius Caesar moment for him…Hope you remember “Et tu Brutus”.

But he is no greenhorn, he knows his game. He knows that one of the best strategies in the world (from time immemorial) in such situations has been to divert people’s attention, to create a national emergency, to give a call for nationalism…

He has done just that…he has successfully created “war like” situation in China, in the minds of the Chinese population and the Chinese Communist Party.

The war cry is loud and clear…

China did not invent the virus (our people are also suffering but the world does not care for us, they just want to blame us), India is enemy no. 1; Hong Kong is trying to get away from China, Russia has annexed our city, Taiwan is a threat to our existence and on and on…..

Expected reaction: People rally around Xi Jinping, Party members seeing the public sentiment fall in line.

Result: His power remains intact…

The way forward:

Here are my thoughts and recommendations for the way forward:

1. When it comes to geopolitics, China is perhaps the shrewdest country in the world. Having China as the lone Superpower could lead to a very dangerous world.

2. We have already seen that using their forces, electronic sleuthing, smart business investments around the globe, using technology to gather people data, spying on them, and influencing their thinking. China’s approach to world dominance is clear. It is not about just dominance, it is about controlling every action. The way it is done within China.

3. If having the US and USSR as two main superpowers was bad for the world, having China as the lone superpower will be worst.

4. Let’s also be clear that the hay days of US are over, while USSR came down like a ton of bricks, the US is, initially slowly but gaining pace rapidly, are slipping down an icy slope. Another few decades and the downfall will become more and more obvious.

Therefore, this is a good time to stop China’s juggernaut also and (hopefully) create a world where there is NO superpower and the benefits are more equitably distributed.

Maybe it is the world order that will be better for all.

How does one do that? By continuing the actions that have been started (preventing Chinese investment, industry from entering our countries), convert them into a world movement till the time the objective is achieved.

As always, please let me know what do you think?

And Yes, please do clap, like, share and help me in reaching more readers…

Till then, God Bless people of this planet called earth…

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