Why is China trying to create disputes all around it? — PART TWO

Why PART TWO and why so fast?

Well, within an hour of my publishing the previous article, I have received lots of questions which can be clubbed under the following two questions:

a. Is there a possibility of India China War?

b. What about the wave of support that has come by nations across the world supporting India?

Since I did not have a simple method to answer these questions, I decided to write a very short article, combining the answers to all the questions that I have received.

So, here goes:

a. Question a: Is there a possibility of India China War?

In my opinion, war will not happen (if only military logic is applied). This is because of the following reasons:

· Wars (for military reasons) are generally started when one side has a clear and reasonable chance of winning. If you read the history of warfare, good commanders try to first create a situation where they have a realistic chance to win.

· In this case, no one nation has a clear chance of winning a short war. Both the armies and air forces (India and China) have moved in its key elements on the border to take on each other. Therefore if war happens, especially given the mountainous terrain, it would be a 1 km this side another km that side kind of war. Both will suffer losses with no one emerging as a clear winner (the reason I said short war is because in a long war the parameters change due to economic, missile and nuclear reasons).

· Also, given the global situation any war between nations as big and as influential as India and China may get escalated to other reasons (in case one side suffers more than the other one).

That brings us back to the question, can war still happen for some other reasons.

Yes, there is a possible reason. Suppose XI Jinping is not able to manage the internal dissent. Feeling that his govt may get toppled, starting a war could be the last resort.

b. What about the wave of support that has come by nations across the world supporting India?

As we all must have been reading that a wave of support for India is coming from US, UK, Russia, Australia, France and some other countries e.g. France is fast-tracking deliveries of Rafale, Russia is giving Mig 29 and Su 30 squadrons in addition to some missile systems. Etc.

Always remember, that in Geo Politics, nothing is done without a reason.

Therefore, the question is why are these countries helping us besides the ideological and economical differences with China and match with India.

Here is my analysis, if war does come about between China and its neighbours (for the reason I mentioned above), India is the only neighbour of China which can and will give China a good fight. Therefore if they strengthen India, they can try and limit the war to the Asian continent only.

One last thought, then why is Russia supporting India by agreeing to give planes and missile systems? One is, of course, economic, second is that if war does come Russia would prefer it to be a two-front war, Russia-China in the north and India-China in the south.

In other words, let India be the first line of defence. Strengthen it to the extent that it can take on China and thus contain the war between India and China leaving other countries unscathed.

Will that approach work?

In my opinion, it won’t…it has been tried before in first and second world wars, it failed every time….and it will fail again.

but then who am I to decide the policy of big nations…

As always, please let me know what do you think?

And Yes, please do clap, like, share and help me in reaching more readers…

Till then, God Bless people of the planet called earth…

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